The price of commodities and stock equities go up and down on a daily basis. The difficult part of investing is to spot long term trends. Gary Wagner is a seasoned veteran often able to separate short term noise from long term trends.
Wagner recently said that the precious metals complex has continued to struggle in a tight and narrow range as equities melt up to new highs. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch described the stock market as "primed for Q1 2020 risk asset melt-up", because of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are providing ample support to portions of the market and economy.
Wagner believes that normally the stock market and the price of gold move inversely. Stocks benefit from a risk-off sentiment, and gold can benefit from a safe haven sentiment. However, there are exceptions when the Federal Reserve moves to a low interest expansionary mode. When the Fed becomes extremely accommodative it is possible for equities, gold other financial assets to rise together.
Wagner believes on a technical basis the compressed range of gold price contains a series of lower highs, and higher lows since September 3 when gold reached this year's high of $1565. This has formed a bullish flag which resembles a flag on a pole. As the range compresses energy builds until it reaches the apex of the pennant, at which time it will break strongly to the prevalent tend direction. In the case of gold, this would signal a strong break to the upside. When the short positions in gold are squeezed gold will spike up. Gary Wagner sees gold hitting 1650 to 1700 in the next leg up, in early 2020. I am long Gold Resource Corp. (GORO)